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ulenrich
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PostPosted: Fri Aug 14, 2020 4:21 pm    Post subject: Revolution for Democracy in Minsk Reply with quote

All signs for a revolution starting. Al Jazeera gives you the pictures.

The early sign for an overthrow was the first moment after the faked election:
Advisors of the president made him believe an overwhelming 80% victory in the election will pave his way. I think this false advice was a sign to all outside that the inside of the ruling elite doesn't trust anymore in
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alexander_Lukashenko
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PostPosted: Sat Aug 15, 2020 6:02 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

People peacefully demonstrate in Minsk with national flags, while president denies international supported negotiations. Instead he gets support in the Kremlin of Russia
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etnull
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PostPosted: Sat Aug 15, 2020 6:55 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I wonder how the very recent detention of the Wagner's group fits into this, were they in Belarus to counter the prepared pro-Western revolution, or were they there to topple him insted. How did he knew about them, maybe he got some intel from the West. He since released them and now bagging for help from Russia? Interesting, did he made a terrible mistake by preventing Wagner's doing their job? Of course like always everything is in the relm of speculation and will be classified for decades.
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PostPosted: Sat Aug 15, 2020 7:12 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

@etnull
I really don't think Belarus is like a little african kingdom where you can topple the government using a little group of privateers. In the past Putin and Lukashenko had their differences, but certainly Putin sees his grip on that country growing when helping Lukashenko. And yes, a little group of reliable soldiers placed near Lukashenko he could send. But there is missing an unfailing agenda of support for the president if the inner circle is giving advice to him purposely failing (nobody would believe an 80% win but a delusional and isolated head of state).
Lukashenko now tries to create his supporting ideology with accusations foreign countries reign in. Nobody believes this when he say such things in the Kremlin.

... but thats only thoughts I have 2 countries far away from Belarus.
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Bones McCracker
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PostPosted: Tue Aug 18, 2020 12:07 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

You speak and perhaps think like offspring of GDR. Is not so?
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PostPosted: Tue Aug 18, 2020 12:40 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Bones McCracker wrote:
You speak and perhaps think like offspring of GDR. Is not so?
I don't know what you say, that the GDR had state children?
Today Lukashenko heard on a ralley of a supporting plant full of workers: "Lukashenko go home"
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PostPosted: Wed Aug 19, 2020 9:08 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Putin has sent his agents to crash the revolution.
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PostPosted: Wed Aug 19, 2020 10:21 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

He's operating layers deeper than you are capable of comprehending. Let's peek just one layer deeper, to give you a clue: he sent his agents to START the revolution, so he could later justify more openly sending special operations forces to prevent it.

It is left as an exercise for the reader to add two more layers above and below.
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PostPosted: Thu Aug 20, 2020 7:26 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Bones McCracker wrote:
He's operating layers deeper than you are capable of comprehending. Let's peek just one layer deeper, to give you a clue: he sent his agents to START the revolution, so he could later justify more openly sending special operations forces to prevent it.

It is left as an exercise for the reader to add two more layers above and below.
You know me,
I am considering such layers. But in this case the lie of Lukashenko to have won with 84% was the trigger ...
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PostPosted: Sun Aug 23, 2020 3:23 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

ulenrich wrote:
Bones McCracker wrote:
He's operating layers deeper than you are capable of comprehending. Let's peek just one layer deeper, to give you a clue: he sent his agents to START the revolution, so he could later justify more openly sending special operations forces to prevent it.

It is left as an exercise for the reader to add two more layers above and below.
You know me,
I am considering such layers. But in this case the lie of Lukashenko to have won with 84% was the trigger ...

"Good! Use your aggressive feelings, boy. Let the hate flow through you."
-- Palpatine
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ulenrich
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PostPosted: Mon Aug 24, 2020 12:35 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Bones McCracker wrote:
ulenrich wrote:
Bones McCracker wrote:
He's operating layers deeper than you are capable of comprehending. Let's peek just one layer deeper, to give you a clue: he sent his agents to START the revolution, so he could later justify more openly sending special operations forces to prevent it.

It is left as an exercise for the reader to add two more layers above and below.
You know me,
I am considering such layers. But in this case the lie of Lukashenko to have won with 84% was the trigger ...

"Good! Use your aggressive feelings, boy. Let the hate flow through you."
-- Palpatine

That a therapy for you as a black american, but for the people confronted with tanks this would be death.
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Bones McCracker
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PostPosted: Mon Aug 24, 2020 2:49 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Stop calling me "Black". I identify as Neanderthal.
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PostPosted: Mon Aug 31, 2020 11:50 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

etnull wrote:
I wonder how the very recent detention of the Wagner's group fits into this, were they in Belarus to counter the prepared pro-Western revolution, or were they there to topple him insted. How did he knew about them, maybe he got some intel from the West. He since released them and now bagging for help from Russia? Interesting, did he made a terrible mistake by preventing Wagner's doing their job? Of course like always everything is in the relm of speculation and will be classified for decades.

Where have you been living? It was successfully investigated and uncovered by Russia's FSB the following day or so.

It was a provocation by Ukraine's SBU and the U.S.A.'s CIA. A bunch of mercenaries were recruited by them reportedly for some legitimate work in Sudan or Venezuela and they were to travel through Minsk. A flight was said to be cancelled, so they had to wait in a hotel. Then Ukraine's SBU contacted Belarus's KGB and told them nonsense about the mercenaries.

It was as childish as it could possibly get. A courtesy of affiliation with the United States of Aggression.
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PostPosted: Tue Sep 01, 2020 4:51 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

How clever! Because Minsk is obviously on the way to Venezuela, so who would ever guess!? Ha ha. Tricky tricky, those tricky CIA..
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PostPosted: Tue Sep 01, 2020 5:11 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Saying that CIA can hire Wagners, is like saying that Putin can hire BlackWater to make a mess in Mexico... otterly stupid assumption. It's basically Russian/US army with no badges, you can't hire them by just going to mercenaries.cc
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PostPosted: Tue Sep 01, 2020 5:41 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

The U.S. doesn't play that way. Our special operations personnel are few in number and highly trained. Russia takes regular soldiers, puts then in civilian clothes, sends them places they're not supposed to be, uses them like partisans, claims they know nothing about it, then lies to their families when they fuck up and get killed or captured.

Its like that case in 2016 when Russia killed one of these guys in Syria with their own poorly trained artillery, then released an absurd "transcript" of the young lieutenant heroically calling in artillery on his own position rather than be captured. Notably, it was a transcript, not a recording, and to me as a former officer myself, it seemed completely ridiculous, totally unmilitary, wordy and prosaic to the point of absurdity and reminiscent of Soviet WWII propaganda. They artied their own boy, and tried make a hero of him to cover it up. And knowing the Russian army, they didn't do it on purpose. That's what Russian spec ops is really like these days.

In all fairness, the US military isn't in the greatest of shape either, after eight years of Obama.
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PostPosted: Tue Sep 01, 2020 9:33 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

@Bones McCracker
And this I wrote in my No Joke thread:
ulenrich wrote:
In Belarus before election day Lukashenko warned Putin to not manipulate the free and fair elections. After Lukashenko succeeded with a stunning 84% majority of the vote, his police force isn't loyal to him anymore. Now he demands police forces from Russia to implement the result of the free and fair elections.
This was no joke. It is a power game of two dictators: When Boris Jelzin faded with alcoholism Lukashenko seriously had aspirations to become leader of Russia, did you know that?
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PostPosted: Tue Sep 01, 2020 10:43 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Cross posting between threads is technically a bannable offense. Did you know that?

If anybody wants to participate in your other thread, they will; it will be generally considered a courtesy not to spam the rest of the forum with references to it or duplicate posts from it.
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ulenrich
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PostPosted: Tue Sep 01, 2020 11:42 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Bones McCracker wrote:
Cross posting between threads is technically a bannable offense. Did you know that?
Yes, but legally this only is a part of a post in another thread of mine. Thus fully in line of being a quote.
Quote:
If anybody wants to participate in your other thread, they will; it will be generally considered a courtesy not to spam the rest of the forum with references to it or duplicate posts from it.
When I posted this like a joke is happening in reality, I didn't know you want to take part in my thread about Belarus.

... I am just thinking how to introduce your weird kind of bullying into my other thread.
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PostPosted: Tue Sep 01, 2020 12:16 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

ulenrich wrote:
... I am just thinking how to introduce your weird kind of bullying into my other thread.

Did I bruise your delicate sensibilities?
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PostPosted: Tue Sep 01, 2020 4:59 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Bones McCracker wrote:
Russia takes regular soldiers, puts then in civilian clothes, sends them places they're not supposed to be, uses them like partisans, claims they know nothing about it, then lies to their families when they fuck up and get killed or captured.
I thought Russian Spetsnaz were badass.
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PostPosted: Sat Sep 12, 2020 1:01 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Twitter @nexta_tv got from Telegram this video of women mass incarceration
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PostPosted: Sat Sep 12, 2020 2:00 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Lukashenko should have lowered his ego a little, to like 60% maybe... like Putin does.
There are only two possible outcomes from autocratic regimes, either soft transition to a dictatorship, or bloody revolution with who knows what outcomes. I don't know a single historical example of a peaceful transition from an autocracy/dictatorship to a democracy in any significant size country.
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PostPosted: Sat Sep 12, 2020 4:29 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Notice how a lot of the comments are "Let the U.S. know!" "U.S. save us!"

it should be the Europeans saving them. But the Europeans are like, hey I just mind my own business, please don't hurt me.
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ulenrich
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PostPosted: Sat Sep 12, 2020 6:44 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Bones McCracker wrote:
Notice how a lot of the comments are "Let the U.S. know!" "U.S. save us!"

it should be the Europeans saving them. But the Europeans are like, hey I just mind my own business, please don't hurt me.
You don't follow european politics !
With breaking international treaties about poison the case Navalny changes german thinking: The EU should decide if Northstream2 will be paused.

This would cost 20 Billions for compensations for german corporations. But the same for russian companies.

Do you know who without care is against a stop of Northstream2 now:
- the leftist Die_Linke
- the trumpian right wingers AFD
(Both may get money from Putin and have their constituency in eastern states.)
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