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Bigun
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PostPosted: Wed Aug 19, 2020 4:18 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Legitimate question, anyone can answer, I just want serious answers as to why.

So, right now there's some serious speculation on whether or not some of the deaths in 2020 are COVID-19 related or not. Then something hit me - if COVID-19 is causing more deaths, then the 2020 death tally should be higher week to week than in 2019/2018, correct? So the cause of death really should be irrelevant, there should be a higher number of deaths - period.

I looked up some stats from the NHCS from 2018 - the math works out to about ~57K deaths per week in 2018.

I had some trouble finding total (all including COVID-19) death stats so far in 2020, but from what data I pulled it's about ~54K per week.

So which is it? Are we doing it right and preventing death, or leading the pack in COVID-19 deaths? The only other theory I can come up with is literally no one doing anything is making up for the abundance of COVID-19 deaths and making a downward trend of death overall. I really am looking for other heads to bounce off of here, other factors I may not be considering here.
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PostPosted: Wed Aug 19, 2020 4:54 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Consider that mortality from other infective diseases like regular influenza has dramatically deceased.

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2020/07/15/tracking-covid-19-excess-deaths-across-countries
https://www.ft.com/content/a2901ce8-5eb7-4633-b89c-cbdf5b386938
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/21/world/coronavirus-missing-deaths.html
https://euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/
https://www.mortality.org/
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PostPosted: Thu Aug 20, 2020 5:47 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Bigun wrote:
Legitimate question, anyone can answer, I just want serious answers as to why.

So, right now there's some serious speculation on whether or not some of the deaths in 2020 are COVID-19 related or not. Then something hit me - if COVID-19 is causing more deaths, then the 2020 death tally should be higher week to week than in 2019/2018, correct? So the cause of death really should be irrelevant, there should be a higher number of deaths - period.

I looked up some stats from the NHCS from 2018 - the math works out to about ~57K deaths per week in 2018.

I had some trouble finding total (all including COVID-19) death stats so far in 2020, but from what data I pulled it's about ~54K per week.

So which is it? Are we doing it right and preventing death, or leading the pack in COVID-19 deaths? The only other theory I can come up with is literally no one doing anything is making up for the abundance of COVID-19 deaths and making a downward trend of death overall. I really am looking for other heads to bounce off of here, other factors I may not be considering here.
Seems like that is going to take a lot of well categorized data. Presumably some covid-19 deaths were really due to an underlying cause. That is, the people were going to die from the underling cause. Repeated mention of age and comorbidity as primary concerns would seem to reinforce that. So how many typical causes of death are now appreciably different (heart disease, diabetes, cancer, traffic accidents, suicide, mistakes made regarding nursing homes / elder care facilities ...)?

It seems there is unlikely to be definitive evidence to confirm whether or not the lockdown was effective at reducing deaths. The story on that was originally to ensure that hospitals weren't overrun, not that it would keep the deaths that much lower other than patients being able to receive medical attention. So either it wasn't necessary, or it was effective. The outcome, whatever it is, can't really be attributed to the either choice since only one was possible.
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PostPosted: Thu Aug 20, 2020 10:29 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

ulenrich wrote:
The author renames body proteins with the term virus. These viruses are not from external sources but part of the body repair system. Nor do they replicate themself in cells. To the contrary every so called "virus" has its own clock, which will terminate the virus' activity after 72 hours.

But we define virus:
- from an external source
- uses body cells to replicate itself with errors
- doesn't have a perfect clock
We know viruses were the first step in evolution to invent sex, death and generations. Before biology only had cells with an age of over 2 billion years (Like all of bacateria cells are now over 3 billion years old). Then suddenly the first sexual generated new generation of life appeared. An explosion of new species happened


Should you take the COVID19 Test? asks questions about viruses. If you have questions about the video, come find me.
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Naib
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PostPosted: Thu Aug 20, 2020 3:35 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Bigun wrote:
Legitimate question, anyone can answer, I just want serious answers as to why.

So, right now there's some serious speculation on whether or not some of the deaths in 2020 are COVID-19 related or not. Then something hit me - if COVID-19 is causing more deaths, then the 2020 death tally should be higher week to week than in 2019/2018, correct? So the cause of death really should be irrelevant, there should be a higher number of deaths - period.

I looked up some stats from the NHCS from 2018 - the math works out to about ~57K deaths per week in 2018.

I had some trouble finding total (all including COVID-19) death stats so far in 2020, but from what data I pulled it's about ~54K per week.

So which is it? Are we doing it right and preventing death, or leading the pack in COVID-19 deaths? The only other theory I can come up with is literally no one doing anything is making up for the abundance of COVID-19 deaths and making a downward trend of death overall. I really am looking for other heads to bounce off of here, other factors I may not be considering here.


For countries that have publicised that data it is.
The UK is one such country. When compared against the running average over the past 5 years there is a clear statistical peaking which is only due to covid.
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/deathsregisteredweeklyinenglandandwalesprovisional/weekending7august2020

Did they have underlying conditions? Yes the UK stats where showing 91% of those who were registered as a COVID death had an underlying condition but the fact remains over 40,000 people died sooner then they would have statistically have died
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PostPosted: Fri Aug 21, 2020 12:27 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Anyone, who has an idea why people died with CoVid-19 in Europe lost 10y of their life,
while the average loss of lifetime in the U.S. is 20y per CoVid-19 victim ?

Although the two numbers show that it is just an estimation, is there some truth about this?
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PostPosted: Fri Aug 21, 2020 3:08 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Naib wrote:
For countries that have publicised that data it is.
The UK is one such country. When compared against the running average over the past 5 years there is a clear statistical peaking which is only due to covid.
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/deathsregisteredweeklyinenglandandwalesprovisional/weekending7august2020

Did they have underlying conditions? Yes the UK stats where showing 91% of those who were registered as a COVID death had an underlying condition but the fact remains over 40,000 people died sooner then they would have statistically have died
During the same 5 year period, how many people statistically died sooner than they would have from other causes, such as seasonal flu?
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Naib
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PostPosted: Fri Aug 21, 2020 3:58 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Dunno... That is hard to say but look at the graphs, that hump around march is quite telling. Then the decline as lockdown had been in operation for 3weeks. Correlation to a reaction
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PostPosted: Fri Aug 21, 2020 4:39 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

In Figure 2, the spike of deaths not involving covid is noticeable. I suppose any who were likely to have died anyway would be part of the average, +/- an arbitrary 10% - 20% (I didn't look for a variance for the averaged 5 years). And the yearly numbers would help differentiate that.
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PostPosted: Fri Aug 21, 2020 11:22 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/shruti-rajagopalan-covid19-and-india/
Quote:
For instance, some places in India installed shared handwashing stations in bus stops and train stations, which is something no developed country would recommend. But in India, you can’t necessarily wash your hands at home — so shared faucets might be the lesser of two evils. (Though note scientists now regard hand hygiene as less central to controlling COVID-19.)

Stay-at-home orders present a more serious example. Developing countries find themselves in a serious bind that rich countries do not.

With nearly no slack in healthcare capacity, India lacks equipment to treat even a small number of COVID-19 patients. That suggests strict controls on movement and economic activity might be necessary to control the pandemic.

But many people in India and elsewhere can’t afford to shelter in place for weeks, let alone months. And governments in poor countries may not have the resources to send everyone money for months — even where they have the infrastructure to do so fast enough.

India did ultimately impose strict lockdowns, lasting almost 70 days, but the human toll has been larger than in rich countries, with a vast number of migratory workers stranded far from home with limited if any income support.

There were no trains or buses, and the government made no provision to deal with the situation. Unable to afford rent where they were, many people had to walk hundreds of kilometers to reach home, often carrying their kids and life’s belongings.

But in other ways the context of developing countries is more promising. In the US many people melted down when asked to wear facemasks. But in South Asia, people just wore them.

Shruti isn’t sure if that’s because of existing challenges with high pollution, past experiences with pandemics, or because intergenerational living makes the wellbeing of the elderly more salient, but the end result is that masks weren’t politicised the way they were in the US.

In addition, despite the suffering caused by India’s policy response to COVID-19, public support for the measures and the government remains high — and India’s population is much younger and so less affected by the virus.
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PostPosted: Fri Aug 21, 2020 11:34 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Naib wrote:
Dunno... That is hard to say but look at the graphs, that hump around march is quite telling. Then the decline as lockdown had been in operation for 3weeks. Correlation to a reaction


This seems like it's probably about right. Morbidity up a few % here, 8% Sweden, 22% Spain etc..

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=exhlnkEH21s
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PostPosted: Sat Aug 29, 2020 3:53 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8676875/Thousands-anti-maskers-believe-pandemic-HOAX-march-against-lockdown-London.html

Quote:
More than 10,000 COVID conspiracy theorists gather in London: Huge crowd of anti-vaxxers led by David Icke gather to argue that virus is a lie spread in secret global plot organised by Bill Gates

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PostPosted: Sat Aug 29, 2020 8:26 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

In Berlin today were several demonstrations of people who want to see the laugh of others again. Perhaps 50t demonstrators or more from all over Germany. The next demonstration they want to hold in Munich/Bavaria.

It seems they have peacefully demonstrated. Despite these people came from many very very different orientations.
(AFD party supporter / anti-capitalists / vegans / nazis / esoterics / pot smokers etc)

Polls suggest that 80% of voters support CoVid policies of the government, 30% want stronger actions against this pandemic. But if 15% of the population tend to the other direction this will escalate conflicts in our society over time.
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PostPosted: Sat Aug 29, 2020 10:44 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

ulenrich wrote:

It seems they have peacefully demonstrated. Despite these people came from many very very different orientations.
(AFD party supporter / anti-capitalists / vegans / nazis / esoterics / pot smokers etc)


Isn't diversity the current goal of society?

In your list you forgot a few of the most important groups:
- Normal employees who are afraid of losing their job in the future
- Self-employed (solo or with a few employees or temporary workers) that the Merkel state has left financially in the lurch, in contrast to large companies and corporations that were literally poured in with money.
- People who are afraid that all the suspended civil rights through emergency ordinances will remain suspended for a long time

And it's true the demonstrators were all peaceful, but not Merkel stormtroopers!
For e.g.
https://i.imgur.com/2bcPxXA.png
https://i.imgur.com/YJ20NeS.png
It is estimated that between 1,000 and 2,000 were (temporarily) arrested.

But this incident made me really angry, a father has his ~4 year old daughter on his shoulder and talks to one of Merkel's stormtroopers and tries to convince him that they no longer use brutal force against peaceful demonstrators.
https://i.imgur.com/rt32dsW.png
The stormtrooper used a lot of force to push the man back
https://i.imgur.com/udkIjfT.png
With so much force that the little girl almost fell off
https://i.imgur.com/5mJU8u0.png
The child then begins to cry because of the violence against her father and indirectly against herself.
https://i.imgur.com/97nRdoT.png

In german mass media, the sometimes brutal violence against peaceful demonstrators is completely suppressed.
Instead, ALL demonstrators are denounced as Nazis and idiots. And yes, unfortunately, there were some right-wing extremists at the demos and also some "weirdos".
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PostPosted: Sun Aug 30, 2020 12:03 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Found a minute with english speech

@frank9999
Are your pictures taken in front of the russian embassy? I have heard about a situation there. What did the people want from Russia?
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PostPosted: Sun Aug 30, 2020 7:24 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

ulenrich wrote:

Are your pictures taken in front of the russian embassy? I have heard about a situation there. What did the people want from Russia?

They wanted to take some pictures for the trolls ;-)
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PostPosted: Sun Aug 30, 2020 9:44 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

ulenrich wrote:


@frank9999
Are your pictures taken in front of the russian embassy? I have heard about a situation there. What did the people want from Russia?


No, these pictures were taken hours before.
These pictures were taken when the police cordoned off one of the demonstration places and continually narrowed the free space for the demonstrators by advancing police officers and building and moving construction fences. The background was, to construct a violation of the demonstrators not following social distancing rules. In order to subsequently than ban all demonstrations and events, luckily that failed.

Attila Hildmann (A former vegan TV chef ) held in front of the Russian embassy a speech and asked the leader of the free world (the title became vacant because Trump was denied to use the title :-) ) Putin(!) for help.
In countries where the west is trying a regime change, would western media label Attila Hildmann to be called as courageous fighters for freedom, leader of the opposition, etc.
But since we are not carrying out a regime change from the west here, he is referred to by the media as a conspiracy theorist, weirdo, right-wing extremist, etc.
Here are the last few seconds before his arrest, don't forget to unmute the sound in the video:
https://twitter.com/i/status/1299739693660147713
And here how he is dragged away with lovingly hugs by the police.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_zFoQspFeqI&feature=youtu.be&t=18

Oh, where is your comment on police violence and the suppression of reporting about it?
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PostPosted: Sun Aug 30, 2020 11:13 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

frank9999 wrote:
...
But this incident made me really angry, a father has his ~4 year old daughter on his shoulder and talks to one of Merkel's stormtroopers and tries to convince him that they no longer use brutal force against peaceful demonstrators.
https://i.imgur.com/rt32dsW.png
The stormtrooper used a lot of force to push the man back
https://i.imgur.com/udkIjfT.png
With so much force that the little girl almost fell off
https://i.imgur.com/5mJU8u0.png
The child then begins to cry because of the violence against her father and indirectly against herself.
https://i.imgur.com/97nRdoT.png

In german mass media, the sometimes brutal violence against peaceful demonstrators is completely suppressed.
Instead, ALL demonstrators are denounced as Nazis and idiots. And yes, unfortunately, there were some right-wing extremists at the demos and also some "weirdos".
I found the motion pictures:
What in still pictures may indicate brutality but in reality was a police officer who repulsed twice an approaching man. Like a woman would do the second time more decidedly.

In this case not the german mass media "completely suppressed" the truth but frank9999. He carefully selected the pictures.
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PostPosted: Sun Aug 30, 2020 1:07 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

[quote="ulenrich"]I found the motion pictures:
What in still pictures may indicate brutality but in reality was a police officer who repulsed twice an approaching man. More like a woman would do the second time more decidedly.

In this case not the german mass media "completely suppressed" the truth but frank9999. He carefully selected the pictures.[quote]

Rarely have I read bullshit like yours before!
Apart from that I made the pictures bigger so that you can see the source of the pictures. Yes, even the approximate time can be seen in my pictures from that stream.
The video you linked shows also 100% what I wrote!

For those who don't understand German, the demonstrators shout "Keine Gewalt! -> "No violence!"
They screamed this because minutes before the police began to arrest individual peaceful demonstrators from the crowd, sometimes with brutal violence.
All of this is fully documented not only from the RT live stream but also filmed many protesters and uploaded to youtube, twitter and others...
And many videos will disappear shortly, or could not be found(shadowbanning) when the censorship becomes active again ..

Why does an armed and armored, physically superior policeman push an unarmed, unarmored man with a small child on his shoulders so hard that there is a risk that the child will almost fall off?
But you already came out weeks ago as a supporter of the Noske-SPD ... I am not surprised that you do not condemn such criminal and despicable behavior by the police!


Social media is full of police brutality yesterday against peaceful demonstrators.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vbupO8msob0

Older man injured and arrested by police (wanted to defend his wife), the crowd shouts "Schämt euch!" "Shame on you!"
https://youtu.be/W92RcaOg0fM?t=35

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HyPh_yvhrlo
....
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PostPosted: Sun Aug 30, 2020 2:39 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

frank9999 wrote:
Why does an armed and armored, physically superior policeman push an unarmed, unarmored man with a small child on his shoulders so hard that there is a risk that the child will almost fall off?
The man walks a mile in between the lines of police, while the child already is holding her ears uneasily. The man approaches a minor police officer unlawfully under an arms length distance saying something. The police officer must insist on two arms length distance and pushes the man very slighlty. The man again approaches below one arms lenght distance. He got pushed away again a bit harder while he holds both of the girls feet. The girl never was in danger to fall but looked around for her mom and began to cry.

I saw no other people with little children in that scene. The behavior of the man would be rational if he asked the police to get out of the crowd because the little child had an health issue for example. But we don't know.

@frank9999 if you don't tell the full story it is a lie in this context. And what about Merkels Stormtroopers? What is this in our federal country. We don't have a stateless Washington DC area. And what about the censorship that will happen? Why?
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PostPosted: Tue Sep 01, 2020 1:42 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

The definitive signature of the West and of Western values are double standards.
When others take note of it and begin doing not as the West says but as the West does, the West begins freaking out about a hybrid war waged against the West.

Like when in Ukraine in 2013 a few people got beaten up by the Ukrainian police. It suddenly became of great concern of all the EU leaders, notwithstanding more brutal crackdowns at that time in Hamburg, Madrid, Turin, Athens,...
and even in Bratislava. Nobody even raised an eyebrow when similar protesters in Bratislava had been beaten in a similar way.

But in the case of Ukraine, which they wanted to subvert, their clamours must have surpassed in urgency the clamours of a diarrhoea patient in front of a locked water closet.

In Germany, there there was a court order to clear an abandoned theatre building, the police brutally beaten up to 500 people and no one batted an eyelid. Because "there must be order".

Not so in Ukraine, though. When new laws were passed and a court decided that the Independence square must be cleared, the West started its usual extortion tactic, threatening sanctions against Ukraine's political leadership if there measures did not get reversed.
The new laws that were passed were aimed at bringing Ukraine in line with the Western standards, like, say, in Germany, where it was forbidden to cover one's face in such public protests, punishable up to one year in prison, I think.
Thus, if you have ever wondered how order is kept in the West, here is an example.

Or consider the Canadian example. You know, "Canada - the better America"... Well, in this "better America", there is a law, apparently spiritually originating in the Jacobite risings, but still effective nevertheless.
You may actually protest all you want, as long as the protest is not riotous, i.e is peaceful and can be safely ignored...
If it is riotous, you are to disperse within half an hour and go home or go about your lawful business. Participation in such a riotous protest is already punishable by prison sentence, but not a very serious one.
However, if you do not disperse within half an hour, that is an aggravating circumstance that carries a possibility of life imprisonment...!

Like I said, they do know how to keep order in their streets.

As for the German media... There is Ringier Axel Springer SK, partly owned (with Ringier AG of Switzerland) by the largest European digital publisher, Axel Springer SE, based in Berlin.

Indeed, that ugly old Axel Springer publishing company, notorious for inciting violence against the students' movement, which culminated in a murder attempt on Rudi Dutschke, by a right-wing extremist, who shot 3 bullets at him and his head.

Ringier Axel Springer SK operates several websites which may superficially resemble news sites, but are, in actual fact, massive propaganda sites, with some of their articles going as far as being overt hate sites.

About 2 weeks ago I caught them posting yet another hate article based on twisting and simplification of facts, false quotations which inserted words which had never been uttered and which substantially reversed the essence of the sentence, etc.
When I posted a note about these falsehoods, completely within the code of conduct, my post was deleted, just as another one, in which I noted the violations of the code of conduct.
A load of hateful, even violence-inciting comments remained.
Probably because Axel Springer and hatred go together like newspapers and black ink.

A week later, despite the appearance that the article maintains a log of changes, there was not a word about the errors and falsehoods that were silently corrected, without any note, much less an apology.
I wrote to the editor-in-chief about the state of the affairs and demanded to know how he was going to prevent this from ever happening again.
Of course, more than a week passed, but I have received no reply. Probably fully in line with the company's culture of arrogance, a site run by a spineless moron who thinks that they can do whatever they want with the impunity of an untouchable crime lord and that he can just get along with burying his head in the sand...
He will be in for a nasty surprise... and when the proverbial $... hits the fan...

But the German infotainment mafia culture of the misrepresentation of facts and inciting hatred has already reached the eastern part of Central Europe, too.[/url]
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PostPosted: Tue Sep 01, 2020 9:16 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

@Antikapitalista
You'll better open a new thread with your story. I searched for Coronavirus related but I missed. So I didn't get your message at all with that wrong premise I had when trying to read.

Back to CoVid:
The last two weeks I really thought Germany is back to exponential pandemic. But numbers are flatening the curve now. Turns out after the end of vacation 40% of new infections were brought back from holidays. But erm67 is right: It is not Italy nor Spain where Germans catched the virus! The most was from the smallest and youngest country in Europe: Kosovo, where people now living in Germany came back to meet family. They surely did no good for their grandparents this year.
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PostPosted: Tue Sep 01, 2020 4:44 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Johns Hopkins Queens County New York Data

A couple of days ago, the JH data for Queens County showed 5984 covid deaths. Now it is showing 43.

Their list of top 50 counties by infections are all adjusted like this. Their death by county list has Hyde in the top spot at 5990. If that is Hyde County, NC, that is about the total population of the county.

What's up here?
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PostPosted: Wed Sep 02, 2020 4:06 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

flysideways wrote:
Johns Hopkins Queens County New York Data

A couple of days ago, the JH data for Queens County showed 5984 covid deaths. Now it is showing 43.

Their list of top 50 counties by infections are all adjusted like this. Their death by county list has Hyde in the top spot at 5990. If that is Hyde County, NC, that is about the total population of the county.

What's up here?


The raw JH data is here:
https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/tree/master/csse_covid_19_data
You can see that all the recent commit messages are about changes to the way new york is handled. I'm guessing that is the root of the issue you are seeing.
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PostPosted: Wed Sep 02, 2020 2:25 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

richk449 wrote:
flysideways wrote:
Johns Hopkins Queens County New York Data

A couple of days ago, the JH data for Queens County showed 5984 covid deaths. Now it is showing 43.

Their list of top 50 counties by infections are all adjusted like this. Their death by county list has Hyde in the top spot at 5990. If that is Hyde County, NC, that is about the total population of the county.

What's up here?


The raw JH data is here:
https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/tree/master/csse_covid_19_data
You can see that all the recent commit messages are about changes to the way new york is handled. I'm guessing that is the root of the issue you are seeing.
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