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pjp
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PostPosted: Wed Sep 02, 2020 4:39 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Old School wrote:
Can't let Fredo's brother look bad.
On a minimally related note, Fredo "The Media is Not Your Friend" Cuomo talks to Cohen about assault allegations, opening his bath robe, and making women uncomfortable.
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PostPosted: Wed Sep 02, 2020 8:06 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

richk449 wrote:
flysideways wrote:
Johns Hopkins Queens County New York Data

A couple of days ago, the JH data for Queens County showed 5984 covid deaths. Now it is showing 43.

Their list of top 50 counties by infections are all adjusted like this. Their death by county list has Hyde in the top spot at 5990. If that is Hyde County, NC, that is about the total population of the county.

What's up here?


The raw JH data is here:
https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/tree/master/csse_covid_19_data
You can see that all the recent commit messages are about changes to the way new york is handled. I'm guessing that is the root of the issue you are seeing.


Thanks for the reply. They have since restored whatever error was made, the viewable data are back in their previous ranges.

My county has been about 865 deaths higher on the JH site than the county site for a couple of weeks. That one too is a query problem I'd guess. Just too isolated to be fixed, or perhaps even found.

I was also watching the county deaths wondering which of Queens or LA county would reach the 6,000 count first.
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PostPosted: Fri Sep 04, 2020 5:51 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Gently reminder for why tracing apps, or any other program or computer, should _always_ be regarded as unsecure:
https://hackaday.com/2020/09/03/covid-tracing-framework-privacy-busted-by-bluetooth/

If benefits are bigger or not than the risks, if everybody should install tracing apps or not, these are different subjects. Just reminding here that computer security is most of the time nothing but wishful thinking.
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PostPosted: Fri Sep 04, 2020 8:33 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

JHU doesn't show it just yet, but India is now reported at over 4 million cases. Soon they will be number two after bumping out Brazil.

"Hold my beer and watch this", was heard. They have been reporting almost twice as many daily cases than the US for a while now.
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PostPosted: Sat Sep 05, 2020 6:37 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

flysideways wrote:
JHU doesn't show it just yet, but India is now reported at over 4 million cases. Soon they will be number two after bumping out Brazil.

"Hold my beer and watch this", was heard. They have been reporting almost twice as many daily cases than the US for a while now.


Yes but it will take a long time until someone beats the american continent:
https://imgur.com/a/z1hRBvw
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PostPosted: Sat Sep 05, 2020 5:17 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

flysideways wrote:
JHU doesn't show it just yet, but India is now reported at over 4 million cases. Soon they will be number two after bumping out Brazil.

"Hold my beer and watch this", was heard. They have been reporting almost twice as many daily cases than the US for a while now.

Per my reading of the JHU numbers, the cases per capita top countries are:
Qatar
Bahrain
Panama
Kuwait
San Marino
Brazil
US

India doesn't make the top twenty

The COVID-19 deaths per capita top countries are:
San Marino
Peru
Belgium
Andorra
UK
Chile
Spain
Italy
Brazil
US

Again, India doesn't make the top twenty.
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PostPosted: Sat Sep 05, 2020 8:09 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

As you can see in the rolling average of daily COVID deaths currently India accounts for (probably) 7/8 of the deaths of the entire Asia, they are a local superstar...
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PostPosted: Sat Sep 05, 2020 9:00 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

erm67 wrote:
As you can see in the rolling average of daily COVID deaths currently India accounts for (probably) 7/8 of the deaths of the entire Asia, they are a local superstar...

Yea, but Asia is the easy league. Try competing in Europe - or even better, in the Americas, where we take seriously our right to breath germs on others.
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PostPosted: Wed Sep 09, 2020 9:16 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

ulenrich wrote:
Turns out after the end of vacation 40% of new infections were brought back from holidays. But erm67 is right: It is not Italy nor Spain where Germans catched the virus! The most was from the smallest and youngest country in Europe: Kosovo, where people now living in Germany came back to meet family. They surely did no good for their grandparents this year.

So, they caught it from Albanians who had been driven from Kosovo & Metohia by the bombing of Yugoslavia by the North Atlantic Terrorist Organization...
Another gift of multiculturalism and imperialism.
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PostPosted: Thu Sep 10, 2020 7:53 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

richk449 wrote:
erm67 wrote:
As you can see in the rolling average of daily COVID deaths currently India accounts for (probably) 7/8 of the deaths of the entire Asia, they are a local superstar...

Yea, but Asia is the easy league. Try competing in Europe - or even better, in the Americas, where we take seriously our right to breath germs on others.
Covid is a virus, not a germ. Wearing a non surgical mask to keep out a virus is like erecting a chain link fence to keep out mosquitoes.
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PostPosted: Thu Sep 10, 2020 8:50 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Old School wrote:
Covid is a virus, not a germ. Wearing a non surgical mask to keep out a virus is like erecting a chain link fence to keep out mosquitoes.
Supposedly the benefit of wearing a mask is for others, not the protection of the wearer. I'm neither agreeing nor disagreeing, but that's the claim I've heard. Somewhere along the way I'd seen a claim made demonstrating the effectiveness of various homemade masks or face coverings. IIRC the "runners" snood-whatever-it-was was the least effective.
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PostPosted: Fri Sep 11, 2020 3:37 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Old School wrote:
richk449 wrote:
erm67 wrote:
As you can see in the rolling average of daily COVID deaths currently India accounts for (probably) 7/8 of the deaths of the entire Asia, they are a local superstar...

Yea, but Asia is the easy league. Try competing in Europe - or even better, in the Americas, where we take seriously our right to breath germs on others.
Covid is a virus, not a germ. Wearing a non surgical mask to keep out a virus is like erecting a chain link fence to keep out mosquitoes.

It's not like the coronavirus is being put in the air as a bare virus - it is contained in liquid particles expelled from your mouth or nose. The mask keeps most of the particles from launching into the air around you. As pjp said, it mostly helps the people around you. Nothing stranger than seeing man claim that they are manly and brave by not wearing a mask - that's like saying that pushing over old ladies is manly.

Even if none of that were true, your analogy wouldn't make much sense. First, a mask is not a chain-link fence. A chain link fence is mostly open - a mask is made of mostly closed material, with multiple overlapping layers, resulting in very little open through area. Second the particles you are expelling are not as smart as a mosquito - they can't think to fly around obstacles.

I should say that I don't know for sure that most of what I wrote here is true. I think it is very likely to be true, based on research I have done, but it is not an area I am an expert in, so I do have to trust other sources to some degree.
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PostPosted: Fri Sep 11, 2020 5:14 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

richk449 wrote:
Old School wrote:
richk449 wrote:
erm67 wrote:
As you can see in the rolling average of daily COVID deaths currently India accounts for (probably) 7/8 of the deaths of the entire Asia, they are a local superstar...

Yea, but Asia is the easy league. Try competing in Europe - or even better, in the Americas, where we take seriously our right to breath germs on others.
Covid is a virus, not a germ. Wearing a non surgical mask to keep out a virus is like erecting a chain link fence to keep out mosquitoes.

It's not like the coronavirus is being put in the air as a bare virus - it is contained in liquid particles expelled from your mouth or nose. The mask keeps most of the particles from launching into the air around you. As pjp said, it mostly helps the people around you. Nothing stranger than seeing man claim that they are manly and brave by not wearing a mask - that's like saying that pushing over old ladies is manly.

Even if none of that were true, your analogy wouldn't make much sense. First, a mask is not a chain-link fence. A chain link fence is mostly open - a mask is made of mostly closed material, with multiple overlapping layers, resulting in very little open through area. Second the particles you are expelling are not as smart as a mosquito - they can't think to fly around obstacles.

I should say that I don't know for sure that most of what I wrote here is true. I think it is very likely to be true, based on research I have done, but it is not an area I am an expert in, so I do have to trust other sources to some degree.
If you read the fine print on non medical masks that are currently being sold, you will see they only claim to keep out dust.

I do wear a mask in public spaces like the rifle range.
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PostPosted: Fri Sep 11, 2020 6:38 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

richk449 wrote:
Nothing stranger than seeing man claim that they are manly and brave by not wearing a mask
I'm sure that exists, but I've only ever heard of issues with being forced to wear something by government. Maybe at some point there will be approved Citizen Uniforms to ensure no one is offended. Would people tolerate an emergency that demanded they not wear religious coverings? Or perhaps nothing at all because of the contamination risk? Before you scoff or dismiss, I'm not buying anyone claiming they predicted either the mask requirement or shuttering of the economy. My personal, practical concern with masks is increased exposure due to handling of masks. That and the security theater of blind obedience when wearing a covering as ineffective as wearing none at all. It is just as easy to mock sheep as it is the "manliness" to which you refer (never mind that some women object as well).
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PostPosted: Fri Sep 11, 2020 7:30 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

On mask use, just follow the science. "Increasing mask use remains an extraordinary opportunity for the world. Increasing mask use to the levels seen in Singapore would decrease the cumulative death toll to 2.0 million, or 770,000 lives saved compared to the reference scenario. This would be a 27% reduction in the deaths expected from now until the end of the year." http://www.healthdata.org/covid/estimation-updates-global
The link takes you to a PDF.

Base page for IHME Estimates Update (most recent as of 9/3/2020) is: http://www.healthdata.org/covid/updates
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PostPosted: Fri Sep 11, 2020 8:35 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Science requires interpretation and interpretation is subject to politicization.

The relevance of Singapore may make sense, depending on what was meant by the comment. For example:
wikipedia wrote:
Population
• 2019 estimate
Increase 5,703,600[Note 2] (115th)
• Density
7,804/km2 (20,212.3/sq mi) (2nd)
Not every place has the population density of Singapore.
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PostPosted: Fri Sep 11, 2020 9:48 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Are we talking medical grade masks, a dust mask like the ones being sold now for protection, or a bandana tied around mouth and nose?

'Cuz most of the people in the US are wearing dust masks or bandanas.
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PostPosted: Fri Sep 11, 2020 10:08 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

That seems like a detail not worth worrying about until the higher level details are solidified. "reference scenario" sounds likely to be overblown, though I'm not interested enough to bother with a PDF. That, and if the masks are all medical grade, what about them being properly fitted? Yeah, I don't think that's going to happen, so at some point, ideals have to hit reality.
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PostPosted: Sat Sep 12, 2020 12:37 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

You can investigate the function of masks by using smoke of cigarettes. Masks stop the other directly hitting you with his air. But long time in a little and closed room with many people: these masks don't help.

I think the main value is to remember everyone what is the situation.
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PostPosted: Sat Sep 12, 2020 2:38 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Here is the link to the HTML (not PDF) global update page for 9/3/2020. It was temporarily unavailable earlier today while they were updating the page.
http://www.healthdata.org/news-release/first-covid-19-global-forecast-ihme-projects-three-quarters-million-lives-could-be

Don't be such skeptics. The idea of universal masking includes on-the-average choice of mask and means of use. The bottom line being that if everybody (i.e. over 90%) did a reasonable job of masking and distancing, 3/4 million lives could be saved between now and the end of the year. It's not going to happen of course.

BTW, the main page of the IHME COVID 19 model was updated today with the latest data. https://covid19.healthdata.org/global
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PostPosted: Sat Sep 12, 2020 3:08 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

pjp wrote:
I'm sure that exists, but I've only ever heard of issues with being forced to wear something by government.

I was thinking of a Joe Rogan clip.

Quote:
That and the security theater of blind obedience when wearing a covering as ineffective as wearing none at all. It is just as easy to mock sheep as it is the "manliness" to which you refer (never mind that some women object as well).

Figure 3 in the paper you link to says that nearly any mask (with the exception of neck gaiters) are mre effective than no mask.
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PostPosted: Sat Sep 12, 2020 5:17 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

As little as I think of Rogan, I'd be surprised if he were opposed to wearing a mask, though I'm sure he might have such a guest.

The neck gaiter is the one I was referencing and mentioned previously but couldn't remember the name. Bandannas don't seem sufficiently better to make it a strong argument for a requirement of vaguely described face covering. It's the thought that counts.
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PostPosted: Sat Sep 12, 2020 9:11 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Old School wrote:
Are we talking medical grade masks, a dust mask like the ones being sold now for protection, or a bandana tied around mouth and nose?

'Cuz most of the people in the US are wearing dust masks or bandanas.

I think bandanas are like neck gaiters - not really effective. For a fabric mask to be effective, it has to be multiple layers of fabric. Otherwise you do get something not too far from the mosquito through a chain-link fence scenario you described. Which is too bad, because I agree that a lot of people wear bandanas, and they are convenient.

Again though, that is just my understanding, and I could be wrong.
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PostPosted: Sat Sep 12, 2020 9:12 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

pjp wrote:
As little as I think of Rogan, I'd be surprised if he were opposed to wearing a mask, though I'm sure he might have such a guest.

Yea, he wasn't opposed, but his guest was.

Quote:
The neck gaiter is the one I was referencing and mentioned previously but couldn't remember the name. Bandannas don't seem sufficiently better to make it a strong argument for a requirement of vaguely described face covering. It's the thought that counts.

So you are saying that we need stricter laws?
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PostPosted: Sun Sep 13, 2020 11:35 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

richk449 wrote:
So you are saying that we need stricter laws?
Not in the way you're likely asking. If you're asking whether or not I think covid mandates should be more strict moving in the direction of gubernatorial and mayoral enforcement posses, then no (that was intentionally exaggerated to demonstrate a range of possibilities, but since state police are enforcers, not that much of an exaggeration).

The only mask relevant law of which I'm am aware is the effectively limitless power of governors to enact mandates (not laws) about how they think things ought to be done under the guise of emergency safety and security. If you are asking if I think those laws should be more strict in the sense of being restricted, then yes.

I presume you were asking about the former. So something along the lines of a mandate on limits to what qualifies as a face covering. This of course requires the threat of enforcement by the state police who would issue excessive fines or shut down a business. At some point, that causes more problems than some believe that it solves. Maybe governors should consult with China on implementing social credit.
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