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U.S. Midterms 2018: What's the Outcome Gonna Be?
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The outcome of the U.S. 2018 midterm elections will be...
Things are going to pretty much remain as they are.
25%
 25%  [ 2 ]
The Republicans are going to make moderate gains.
12%
 12%  [ 1 ]
The Republicans are going to trash the Democrats.
37%
 37%  [ 3 ]
The Democrats will pick up one house.
12%
 12%  [ 1 ]
The Democrats will pick up both houses.
12%
 12%  [ 1 ]
The Democrats are just going to trash the Republicans.
0%
 0%  [ 0 ]
Total Votes : 8

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wswartzendruber
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PostPosted: Mon Nov 05, 2018 2:01 am    Post subject: U.S. Midterms 2018: What's the Outcome Gonna Be? Reply with quote

What is everyone's forecast for the U.S. 2018 midterm elections?
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PostPosted: Mon Nov 05, 2018 2:32 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Republicans have modest losses in the house but maintain control.

Republicans pick up a Senate seat or two.

MSM pollsters and talking points get BTFO, again.
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wswartzendruber
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PostPosted: Mon Nov 05, 2018 2:50 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I'm going with very modest gains in the GOP due to a favorable economy.
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PostPosted: Mon Nov 05, 2018 2:51 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

wswartzendruber wrote:
I'm going with very modest gains in the GOP due to a favorable economy.


Economy, Trumps reported approval, and 2016's "99% chance Hillary wins".
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wswartzendruber
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PostPosted: Mon Nov 05, 2018 2:52 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I should have said *by* the GOP.
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PostPosted: Mon Nov 05, 2018 5:18 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Republicans barely maintain the House of Representatives by a few seats, and pick up a seat or two in the Senate. Biggest surprise is that minorities voted for Trumpish candidates in much higher percentages than people were expecting.
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PostPosted: Mon Nov 05, 2018 5:45 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

richk449 wrote:
Republicans barely maintain the House of Representatives by a few seats, and pick up a seat or two in the Senate. Biggest surprise is that minorities voted for Trumpish candidates in much higher percentages than people were expecting.


Agreed.
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The Doctor
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PostPosted: Mon Nov 05, 2018 4:54 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

The polls have been skewed left ever since the week following the Republican convention and I don't believe they have taken any steps to correct this. Breitbart ran the story and actually did a very good job. By changing the number they used to forecast results the GOP suffered something like a 2% penalty. When that was corrected the 2016 map matched election results.

Given this fact, I think the GOP is going to do very well this season. There are many "too close to call" races but 2% puts them GOP. In a few days we will know if I'm right or not. ;)
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PostPosted: Mon Nov 05, 2018 5:02 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

https://electoral-vote.com/

This site is maintained by Andrew S. Tanenbaum, the grandfather of Linux and author of the textbook on computer networking.
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PostPosted: Mon Nov 05, 2018 7:32 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Muso wrote:
richk449 wrote:
Republicans barely maintain the House of Representatives by a few seats, and pick up a seat or two in the Senate. Biggest surprise is that minorities voted for Trumpish candidates in much higher percentages than people were expecting.


Agreed.


In Michigan we have a minority candidate (John James) running on a Trumpish platform and creaming 400 year old relic Debbie Stabenow in the polls for example.
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flysideways
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PostPosted: Tue Nov 06, 2018 3:30 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Beto’s gonna be surfin the blue wave ...
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wswartzendruber
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PostPosted: Tue Nov 06, 2018 3:53 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

This morning marks the beginning of Paulette Jordan's twelve-hour-long punch in the balls! :twisted:
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wswartzendruber
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PostPosted: Wed Nov 07, 2018 2:49 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

About 1/3 of the House races have been called, and the Democrats have only picked up 2 of the 23 seats they need to flip control in the House.
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PostPosted: Wed Nov 07, 2018 4:36 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Looks like the Democrats thrashed the Republicans. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-46120373

Clearly a referendum on Trump.
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PostPosted: Wed Nov 07, 2018 4:52 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

notageek wrote:
Looks like the Democrats thrashed the Republicans. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-46120373

Clearly a referendum on Trump.
Well, I have to say
Quote:
The BBC's US partner network CBS projects the Democrats will win the 23 seats they need to take over the lower chamber of Congress.
This reads like a projection, not a result.

Anyway, if the GOP retains the senate no one can claim a mandate here.
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wswartzendruber
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PostPosted: Wed Nov 07, 2018 4:55 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

It looks like the GOP will marginally lose the House while making gains in the Senate.
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PostPosted: Wed Nov 07, 2018 5:12 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

notageek wrote:
Looks like the Democrats thrashed the Republicans. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-46120373

Clearly a referendum on Trump.


first midterm

second midterm
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pjp
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PostPosted: Wed Nov 07, 2018 6:06 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

notageek wrote:
Looks like the Democrats thrashed the Republicans. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-46120373

Clearly a referendum on Trump.
Gains in the Senate and typical losses in the House doesn't seem like a thrashing, and certainly not a referendum.

Thrashings?
FDR (D) 1938 -77; 1942, -64
Truman (D) 1946, -57
Eisenhower (R) 1958, - 61
LBJ (D) 1966, -51
Ford (R) 1974, -63
Clinton (D) 1994, - 60
Obama (D) 2010, -69.

(unverified data source)
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PostPosted: Wed Nov 07, 2018 6:49 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Dems actually took the house. Shocking that the polsters weren't completely wrong like they have been on 2014 & 2016. The GOP did strengthen their control in the senate.

The celebrity endorsed candidates failed.

So here's what I see going forward. If the dems decide to go full tard and do nothing but run impeachment ops, it will never work as the Senate will not convict. The judiciary is going to take a hard swing to the right. We'll have more guano feminists trying to put witch hexes on the GOP and look ridiculous. Trump is basically an old school democrat, so he'll sign bills for infrastructure. Now if the dems are smart, they will try to legislate bills that will get the president's signature... but I have no faith in them. I assume they will pull the Kavanaugh crap again for the next 2 years, giving Trump and the GOP the ability to point directly at them and sweep the 2020 cycle.

Again, if the dems are smart they should legislate to get bills passed... but I seriously doubt they have any level of sanity left.
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PostPosted: Wed Nov 07, 2018 7:09 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Muso wrote:
Dems actually took the house. Shocking that the polsters weren't completely wrong like they have been on 2014 & 2016. The GOP did strengthen their control in the senate.
Presumably many of them want to be reasonably accurate. If as a group they continued to be horribly wrong, they'd be less valuable than going to a psychic.

Muso wrote:
Again, if the dems are smart they should legislate to get bills passed... but I seriously doubt they have any level of sanity left.
To be fair, I believe they are responding to a changing party and trying to figure out WTF. They had near total control until Reagan's presidency. Since then, they haven't learned how to do anything but throw tantrums. I find it shocking, but that seems to work for a lot of voters. Their main advantage seems to be an ability to repair and reorganize their collective.
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PostPosted: Wed Nov 07, 2018 7:20 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

pjp wrote:
To be fair, I believe they are responding to a changing party and trying to figure out WTF. They had near total control until Reagan's presidency. Since then, they haven't learned how to do anything but throw tantrums. I find it shocking, but that seems to work for a lot of voters. Their main advantage seems to be an ability to repair and reorganize their collective.


I feel bad for the rational, old school JFK democrats, the tiny handful which are still there. This new breed of rabid PC obsessed SJWs who no longer even believe in the presumption of innocence is a horrific force. Were they ever to assume absolute power, it will be the end of the republic.
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wswartzendruber
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PostPosted: Wed Nov 07, 2018 7:43 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Idaho voted for Medicaid expansion. Hrm...
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PostPosted: Wed Nov 07, 2018 7:52 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

pjp wrote:
typical losses in the House


You're joking, right? Typically Republicans expected Democrats to take the house, i.e. get a majority?

There were 435 seats up for election in the house and the majority was taken up by Democrats. This is an unequivocal referendum on Trump.


pjp wrote:

Thrashings?
FDR (D) 1938 -77; 1942, -64
Truman (D) 1946, -57
Eisenhower (R) 1958, - 61
LBJ (D) 1966, -51
Ford (R) 1974, -63
Clinton (D) 1994, - 60
Obama (D) 2010, -69.

(unverified data source)


Irrelevant.
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Last edited by notageek on Wed Nov 07, 2018 7:55 am; edited 1 time in total
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PostPosted: Wed Nov 07, 2018 7:54 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

flysideways wrote:
notageek wrote:
Looks like the Democrats thrashed the Republicans. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-46120373

Clearly a referendum on Trump.


first midterm

second midterm


third midterm

What is your point?
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PostPosted: Wed Nov 07, 2018 8:00 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

notageek wrote:
Typically Republicans expected Democrats to take the house, i.e. get a majority?


Yes.
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